Morocco Named Most Stable Maghreb Country as China and Russia May Recognize Western Sahara Sovereignty

A new report has identified Morocco as the most stable nation in the Maghreb region, amid growing speculation that global powers China and Russia may soon recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara—a move that could significantly alter geopolitical dynamics in North Africa.

Morocco’s Stability Stands Out

The report, published by a leading geopolitical risk assessment firm, highlights Morocco’s political and economic resilience compared to its neighbors. While Algeria faces internal unrest and Tunisia grapples with economic crises, Morocco has maintained relative stability through strategic reforms, infrastructure investments, and strengthened international partnerships.

King Mohammed VI’s government has also pursued an assertive diplomatic campaign to garner support for its autonomy plan for Western Sahara, a disputed territory claimed by the Polisario Front, which seeks independence.

China and Russia’s Potential Shift

Sources suggest that both China and Russia—permanent members of the UN Security Council—are considering recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, following in the footsteps of the United States, which did so under the Trump administration in 2020.

Such a move would mark a major diplomatic victory for Rabat and could accelerate economic investments in the region, particularly in phosphate mining, renewable energy, and port development in Dakhla and Laayoune.

Analysts warn, however, that this shift could strain relations with Algeria, a key backer of the Polisario Front, and further polarize regional alliances. Algeria recently recalled its ambassador to Morocco in 2021 over the Western Sahara dispute, and any recognition by Beijing or Moscow may provoke stronger reactions.

Implications for Regional Dynamics

If China and Russia formally endorse Morocco’s position, it could weaken the Polisario’s international standing and push more African and Arab states to follow suit. Over two dozen nations, including several in the Middle East and Africa, have already opened consulates in Western Sahara in support of Morocco’s claim.

The African Union, where Morocco rejoined in 2017 after a 33-year absence, remains divided on the issue. Meanwhile, the UN continues to advocate for a negotiated solution, though its peacekeeping mission, MINURSO, has seen limited progress in recent years.

Global Reactions

Western nations remain cautious, with the EU maintaining a neutral stance while deepening economic ties with Morocco. However, if Russia and China—both influential voices in the Global South—change their positions, pressure may grow on Europe to reassess its policy.

For now, all eyes remain on Rabat, Algiers, and the geopolitical maneuvers of major powers as the decades-old Western Sahara conflict enters a potentially decisive phase.