China and Russia Poised to Recognize Moroccan Sovereignty Over Western Sahara as France Steps Up Energy Financing

Rabat, July 2, 2025 – A new analysis by the Migration Research Institute, titled “Morocco at Crossroads” and published on June 24, 2025, underscores the Kingdom as “the most stable country in the entire Maghreb.” The report highlights Morocco’s resilience amid regional upheaval—citing decades of institutional reform, infrastructure investment, and a measured foreign policy under King Mohammed VI—and signals that Moscow and Beijing may soon join Washington, Paris, and London in recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.

Since December 2020, when the United States formally recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory under President Trump’s administration, Morocco has methodically secured endorsements from other major powers. In July 2024, President Emmanuel Macron declared that France now regards Morocco’s 2007 autonomy proposal as the “only basis” for resolving the conflict reuters.com. Most recently, on June 1, 2025, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced the United Kingdom’s formal backing of Rabat’s autonomy plan as the most “credible, viable and pragmatic” solution to the decades-long dispute.

The “Morocco at Crossroads” report further forecasts that China and Russia—the only two remaining permanent members of the UN Security Council yet to take a public stance—are “highly likely” to approve Morocco’s claims “in the coming months,” effectively cementing near-unanimous Security Council support for Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.

Parallel to these diplomatic developments, France is deepening its economic engagement with Morocco through major energy investments. In April 2024, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire confirmed that Paris is ready to finance a 3 GW high-voltage subsea electricity link from Casablanca to Dakhla—designed to channel Saharan solar and wind power into Morocco’s national grid—and to explore cooperation on solar, wind, green hydrogen, and nuclear projects. Moreover, French Trade Minister Franck Riester has indicated that Proparco, the private-sector arm of the Agence Française de Développement, could underwrite both the Casablanca–Dakhla power link and the construction of a Morocco–Europe gas pipeline, further integrating Moroccan energy resources with European markets.

Together, these moves reinforce Morocco’s emergence as a linchpin of regional stability and energy transition—leveraging its strategic geography to bridge African and European markets while navigating great-power competition with skillful diplomacy and targeted infrastructure financing.