Israel between The Iranian Bomb or Bombing Iran and more…

Israel now faces one of the most daunting strategic conundrums in its history: let Iran get nuclear or launch an early military offensive against it. Israeli leaders face a difficult decision due to Iran’s increasingly advanced nuclear program, and the spectre of an Israeli military strike on Iranian soil looms larger than ever.

The Dilemma
Israel, which has said for years that an Iranian capability has been within reach, views the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat. Iran, however, says its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes, but it has alarmed the world with its enrichment activities and secretive behavior.

Israel has been faced with this decision before but the current situation is more urgent. Israel has two options: go at it alone against Iran’s nuclear plans, or work with both international and diplomatic efforts that did not seem to gain any traction as of yet.

Facilitating an Iranian bomb: This would fundamentally change the security calculus in the Middle East and could lead to a regional proliferation cascade, creating new threats to Israel’s existence.
Attack Iran’s nuclear installations: A pre-emptive strike might set back the Iranian nuclear program but would carry major downsides, such as regional counterattacks, economic dislocation, and in all likelihood embroil not only Washington but other global powers into a wider war.
THE RISK OF AN IRANIAN BOMB
The uncertainty that Iran goes nuclear, if Israel chose not to take action. Such a possibility would strengthen the hand of Tehran, essentially putting the Iranian leadership in control of their neighbors to destabilizing effect. If Iran developed nuclear weapons, it would be a strategic threat to Israel and concern over the delivery system — such as the missile technology in Kim’s case — could be high. That Iran has close ties to Hezbollah and other militant groups would also make Israeli planners shiver with the thought of such a force possessing nukes.

Or, increasingly fearful of a nuclear-capable Iran on their doorstep, the Saudis and other Sunni Arab states might develop or resort to buying nukes from Pakistan in an arms race only the extremists can win.

Risks of a Military Strike
A military strike against those nuclear assets, on the other hand, would inevitably provoke prompt reprisals not only by Iran but possibly also by its regional allies – from Hezbollah to militias in Syria and Iraq. That could trigger counter vengeance aimed at Israeli cities, military bases and vital infrastructure -escalating into a broad conflict in the region.

Economic blowback would be great as well. But a spillover war in the Middle East, this time possibly between Israelis and Palestinians, could bring global oil supplies to their knees and make fresh hash of international trading floors/repos.

Another challenge is that an Israeli attack might not remove Iran’s nuclear capacity all together. Even though such an operation would delay the program by anywhere from a few months to a couple of years at most, Iran could simply rebuild — likely with far greater determination.

The Role of the U.S.
The US allies with Israel, and would also be heavily impacted by an Israeli decision. The US has tried to contain Iranian nuclear development with diplomacy but neither the White House nor Congress is obligated to mount a military response if Israel hits Iran. Inevitably, Washington would be dragged into the fracas — either in a military sense or by underwriting one side or another economically — and it would have to deal with the aftermath spewing out escapable regional consequences.

What’s Next?
Time for Israel is running out. As the diplomatic overtures to halt Iran’s nuclear momentum go on, the clock is running out for Israel to take matters into its own hands. An international bid to avert military action, one that is particularly motivated by the White House, fails increasingly with each passing day and leads up to restore balance: Israel must soon make an impossible choice.

The situation is in flux, and Israel’s end-game decision—whether to live with an Iranian bomb or bomb Iran itself—will certainly shape the future of the Middle East and well beyond.

Conclusion
Strategically speaking, the next few months could be of crucial importance for Israel and perhaps the entire strategic landscape in the Middle East. This will have a wide-ranging impact both in terms of global stability, economic markets and regional peace — whether it decides to go for military action or not. The grim choice facing Israel — with the eyes of the world on it